Foreign media reports that the Pump.fun token PUMP did not experience significant selling pressure after its recent large-scale unlocking; instead, its price rebounded rapidly from its recent low and is now approaching its long-term downtrend line. Market focus has shifted from the unlocking itself to whether buying pressure can continue to support this rebound.

Unlock tokens into circulation

The article mentions that starting in mid-July, a portion of the tokens held by project investors and the team entered the unlocking phase. According to the disclosed unlocking arrangement, 25% of the investor allocation, approximately 32.5 billion PUMPs, will be released; 25% of the team allocation, approximately 50 billion PUMPs, will be released; and the remainder will be unlocked linearly over the next 36 months.

Typically, such large-scale unlocks increase the circulating supply and create profit-taking pressure. However, the market reacted differently this time. PUMP did not fall significantly after the unlock; instead, it continued to rise, indicating that the newly circulating tokens were temporarily absorbed by market buying.

The price rose to around $0.0020.

PUMP is currently trading around $0.0020, having rebounded nearly 50% from its previous low of around $0.0013. This gain has pushed the price to the upper edge of a long-term downtrend channel, a resistance area that has repeatedly suppressed rallies over the past few months.

The article argues that short-term momentum has shown signs of improvement. The Supertrend indicator has turned bullish, and the price has risen above the Guppy EMA cluster, indicating that short-term buying has regained dominance. Meanwhile, trading volume has increased during the rebound, providing some support for this recovery.

Open interest continued to decline

However, derivatives data did not fully reflect the price increase. The continued decline in open interest suggests that this rebound was not primarily driven by new leveraged long positions, but rather by spot demand absorbing supply after some positions were liquidated.

This price action doesn't necessarily signal the end of the rebound, but without sustained buying interest in the spot market, prices could face renewed pressure near key resistance levels. The article points out that the latest candlestick indicates sellers are beginning to respond near the downtrend line, making this area the most crucial point for bulls to break through.

Focus on two key price levels

The article argues that if PUMP can hold above $0.00185 and break through the $0.00210 to $0.00215 range, accompanied by increased trading volume and improved open interest, the current rebound could extend further.

Conversely, if the price encounters resistance again near the trendline, and open interest continues to weaken while there is more significant selling by unlocked holders, PUMP may fall back to the support area around $0.00160.