Foreign media reports that Goldman Sachs believes Brent crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year if the Middle East conflict continues and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. The article extrapolates that a renewed rise in oil prices could put pressure on stocks and crypto assets by increasing inflation expectations and suppressing risk appetite.
Oil price forecasts revised upwards again
The report noted that Brent crude oil rose to $126.41 per barrel on April 30, when the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated. Goldman Sachs had previously predicted oil prices of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter and $75 per barrel for 2027. This higher target is based on the assumption that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be restricted.
If the situation continues to deteriorate, oil prices could return to their April highs. Conversely, if regional tensions ease and shipping resumes, crude oil prices could fall.
Risk appetite may be disrupted after inflation falls.
The article states that the US inflation rate was 4.2% in May 2026, falling back to 3.5% in June. Following the decline in inflation data, market risk appetite improved, and cryptocurrency prices subsequently strengthened.
However, if oil prices continue to rise in July, energy costs could push up inflation figures again. The article argues that this would weaken investors' willingness to allocate to high-risk assets, and funds might withdraw from volatile markets such as crypto assets.
Safe-haven assets may see further inflows of funds.
Besides the crypto market, the stock market may also be affected in the same way. The article argues that if high oil prices drag down overall economic expectations, retail investors may turn to safe-haven assets such as gold, rather than continuing to increase their allocation to stocks and crypto assets.
- Brent crude oil extreme forecast: $120 per barrel
- Intraday high on April 30: $126.41 per barrel
- US inflation rate in June: 3.5%
If the situation in the Middle East eases, market logic could quickly reverse. The article argues that once a ceasefire agreement is implemented and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, falling oil prices will help boost investor confidence, and pressure on stocks and crypto assets will also ease.
